The author is the Italian industrialist and Honorary member of the Academy of Science of the Institut de France with long experience in the Middle East . he wrote this article especially for RI
The Russian
Federation was one of the prime movers of the negotiations that resolved
the Iranian nuclear issue through the P5+1 Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (JCPOA) with Iran.
For Russia, the nuclear deal
expands to the economy, as well to as the strategic reputation of an
ally, namely Iran, which Russia needs, both in the Middle East and in
terms of an increase in crude oil prices, a life or death matter.
Russia
is not involved in the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran,
supporting everything that can create better relations between the two
Islamic nations, aware that tensions in the Middle East could cause a
"domino effect".
If the Greater Middle East were to
flare up, the Syrian crisis, the Shi’ite Houthi insurgency in Yemen, the
destabilization of Shi’ite areas in the Saudi Kingdom and the de facto
closure of the sea routes south of Suez, Russian engagement could not
continue indefinitely without creating severe economic and strategic
problems.
Not even Iran wants a real war along its
borders, since it has every interest in taking full advantage of the new
economic and political climate, especially with Europe, after the
signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan.
But how is the management of the P5+1 agreement with Iran progressing, as the keystone of the entire Middle East system?
At
the economic level, Iranian-Russian trade will be enhanced in key
productive sectors. According to Supreme Leader Khamenei’s plan, the
funds returned to Iran, plus increasing trade with the European Union,
the United States, Russia and China will generate an economic takeoff.
The
sectors involved in Iranian-Russian trade are the nuclear, armaments,
natural gas and oil, whose price they may set. The geo-economic
tripartite relationship foreseen by Iran includes Russia, Iraq and
Venezuela, while Russia proposes coordination with OPEC to achieve an
acceptable oil price.
After signing the JCPOA, Russia
and Iran also decided to increase economic exchanges from 1.5 billion US
dollars in 2013 to 15 billion US dollars within the next five years.
This means that the Iranian ruling class plans on off-setting the
economic opening to the West with an almost equivalent expansion of
trade with Russia.
The position of Ali Akbar Velayati, a
close foreign policy aide of Rahbar Khamenei, is that stabilization of
the area stretching from Central Asia to the Maghreb and the Middle
East, via the Caucasus, can only be permanently guaranteed by a
tripartite agreement between China, Russia and Iran.
While
Europe is currently swinging between a useless and a ridiculous
strategy, and the United States have made it clear they are leaving the
Middle East, there is no effective alternative.
The
Iranian leader intends to eradicate jihad and enlarge the area of the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization, enabling China to implement its new
"Silk Road” project, the One Belt One Road announced by Xi Jinping in
October 2013.
Europe, which still delights in useless
and expensive "peace operations" that exacerbate conflicts rather than
solving them, will have an Eastern border controlled by this
Sino-Russian-Iranian axis. The European Union will have no say in this
new configuration, allowing the US to pursue a new "cold war" along the
Euro-Russian border.
Pending Implementation Day on
January 16, 2016, as many as 593 individuals and companies connected to
Iran's uranium enrichment project have been "pardoned" by both the
United States and the European Union, including many transport
companies, banks, individual nuclear technology experts and companies
outside the Shi’ite Republic, thanks to Iran’s release of four prisoners
held in its jails.
Iran will be increasingly determined
to see an end to the Syrian conflict and Al Baghdadi’s Caliphate that
constitutes a strategic threat. China also needs ISIS to be eliminated
in order to complete its "New Silk Road" to Europe.
At
least 35% of the funds Iran recovers after the lifting of sanctions will
pay for new weapons, both Russian and Chinese, as the nuclear threat
moves from the Shi’ite Republic to a traditional ally, North Korea.
Yemen will get an Iranian nuclear power plant, and Syria will assign
parts of its territory to Iran for conventional nuclear operations, and
Iraq will accept the presence of Iran’s “forbidden” weapon systems on
its territory, as Iran creates a real deterrent that can be used in
regional clashes.
This brings to mind the old Soviet
strategy manual written by General Shaposhnikov, which saw the use of
nuclear weapons in continuity with conventional weapons where tactically
useful.
After signing the JCPOA, Iran has chosen the
credible and immediate threat instead of an old geopolitics of nuclear
confrontation which is becoming impossible as arsenals are equalized.
Iran will become a legitimate regional power and an important mediator
of future regional conflicts.
Without a reliable centre
of gravity in the Middle East that interrupts ISIS’s forward march,
enabling the European Union to remain safe within its borders, there
will no security in the Mediterranean basin, since terrorism can turn
into open warfare.
Therefore we can think of a new
negotiation of the P5+1 "contact group" on Iran's missile system,
allowing limited conventional weapons. We could also consider containing
Saudi Arabia’s nuclear ambitions, relying on a strategic relationship
between Russia, China and EU-NATO.
This would rebalance
the strategic potential of Iran, Saudi Arabia, and possibly Iraq,
keeping the possibility of a nuclear confrontation between Pakistan and
India under control.
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